Just doing my usual rounds in the Kunming tea markets, chatting with shop owners about 2019. The mood? A mix of skepticism and complaints about how the last couple of years have been rough for the tea business. The ancient “gu shu” tea trees and aged tea concepts—still hot hits for the foreign market—aren’t cutting it here anymore because everyone knows those ideas have been seriously overhyped. Dry-stored teas are easier to “read,” leaving little wiggle room for tweaking age claims ( more in Fake Puerh article ) , and prices for arbor tea are already shooting through the roof right at the source—the farmers.
The tea price forecast for this spring isn’t looking great for anyone running a tea business, mainly because it seems prices are being adjusted to match the booming tea tourism in spots like Xishuangbanna. With tea clubs, tea tours, and organized jeep and SUV trips ferrying tourists to tea plantations, traffic is only going to increase—especially once the high-speed train to Jinghong is up and running.

Word on the street—and by street, I mean the local social media from other provinces—is that Fujian folks will be doubling down on aged white tea this year. And by “focus,” don’t expect them to magically stumble upon a decade-old stash hidden in a basement! ;-D Similarly, more aged oolong is predicted to hit the market, but it’s not because someone finally “discovered” a forgotten treasure from 10 or 30 years ago (a classic marketing spin for this kind of tea).
It’s no secret the local economy is slowing down, so more tea business owners are trying their luck overseas—hunting for customers on Facebook, Instagram, eBay, and Amazon. Tea factories and even “tea farmers” are popping up on Facebook more than ever, but who knows which are legit? After all, we all have that classic tea-tree-hugging selfie, right? 😉

This could be promising for consumers abroad—more competition usually means lower prices—but sadly, not necessarily better quality. In such a saturated market, price tends to dominate. When I recently checked eBay, there were about 14,500 listings for “pu-erh tea.” I recognized many wrappers, and a lot were those 10–20 CNY pu-erh cakes rebranded with names of famous mountains or villages. Most of these come from Guangzhou, Shanghai, or Hong Kong, where international trade has deep roots. Over the last two years, the fluctuations in both price and quality have been strikingly obvious.

As I’ve been watching the scene this year, not many vendors have raised pu-erh tea prices like they usually do after the Chinese New Year. Mostly, it’s the tea factories hiking prices just to keep their investors happy. ( more in Puerh Tea Business article ) Sales have dropped, and pu-erh prices are caught in the tug-of-war: on one hand, prices drop naturally due to lower demand and fiercer competition; on the other, prices rise—especially for arbor and gu shu tea—because shops need to cover the same or even higher expenses while selling less than before. Even long-established shops with loyal customers are feeling the squeeze.
It feels like we’ve hit a repeat of 2007, which suggests that in 10 years, there might be a flood of aged pu-erh on the market, keeping “lao cha” prices from rising much despite the wait. No wonder tea vendors are hesitant to make storage teas as future investments this year—they’re playing it safe and waiting to see how this all shakes out!

I’m hearing all kinds of strategies from sellers. Some want to focus on different packaging or shift between online and offline sales channels. Others aim to sell smaller quantities but across many locations, while some prioritize producing small batches of higher quality tea from famous regions. But few are planning to go big and simple this year.
It will probably take a few years for the decreased demand to reach the tea farms and convince farmers to rethink their prices. Although we saw some desperation in certain areas last year, farmers are still holding firm, keeping prices high—even with tons of 2-3-year-old tea sitting unsold.

Some tea farmers’ storage holds up well, but only up to a certain point. Most of these storage areas are in high-humidity environments, and over time, prolonged exposure isn’t ideal for the tea’s quality.

Many villages are eager to promote tea tourism, inspired by successful models in places like Bing Dao and LBZ. However, this success depends on many factors beyond their control. So, the usual tactic? Good old-fashioned price inflation—raising prices ridiculously high to grab attention. Surprisingly, this approach still works for many Chinese consumers across various industries, and tea is no exception.

New concepts from tea farmers and producers are emerging more frequently than before. These include “xin gong yi”—extended “wei diao” (withering time) processing, the application of the “yao qing” step during processing, or “gao wen sha qing”—using higher temperatures during the kill green step. These techniques are employed for several reasons: to make the tea sweeter and more approachable to a wider audience, or to market it as Gu Shu tea despite the young age of the tea trees.
I recently came across Bai Yun Shan wild tea leaves processed with “yao qing” that were remarkably sweet throughout. The oolong-style processing, reminiscent of Dan Cong tea, was noticeable, alongside the wild tea character clearly reflected in the leaf structure. More about processing in Smart Tea Drinker